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Super Bowl Betting - History Says Smart Money is on the Favorites
Favorites triumph about 33 percent of the time at thoroughbred racetracks. The NFL team with the highest winning percentage for all games played during the regular season is the Miami Dolphins -- nearly 59 percent.
When it comes to the Super Bowl, you’ll be surprised to learn as I did, favorites win more than 74 percent of the time.
Favored teams triumphed in 32 of the 43 games. That bodes well Sunday for the Baltimore Colts, favored over the New Orleans Saints since both made it to the NFL championship game at Sun Life Stadium, home of the Dolphins.
The longest winning streak for favorites was from 1971 to ’80: Nine. There have been only five double-digit underdogs that came out on top. The biggest upset came in Super Bowl 3 when the Jets whipped the 18-point favored Baltimore Colts, 16-7.
A week ago Indianapolis was a 5 ½- to 6-point favorite at seven online sportsbooks. On Wednesday, the odds averaged 5 ½ points with three sportsbooks offering 5 points.
The main reason: Colts star defensive end Dwight Freeney’s right ankle injured in the AFC conference championship victory over the Jets isn’t getting better. With two minutes to go, he pulled up short of quarterback Mark Sanchez on a pass rush, hopped several steps and limped off the field.
In fact, several media organizations reported coach Jim Caldwell is preparing to play without Freeney though he remains hopeful his leading sacker will suit up.
However, the Associated Press said the team is working on a rotation without him in case he can’t perform and defensive lineman Raheem Brock would be the replacement.
Freeney, with 13 ½ sacks, has been held out of practice since last week and said his chances of working out later this week weren’t good. He has averaged 10 or more sacks six times during the past eight seasons.
Officially, an Indianapolis spokesman said the injury is a third-degree, low basketball strain.” However, one source said it was a torn ligament.
“Hopefully, towards the end of the week it starts to get better,” Freeney said, adding that he enlisted the help of chiropractors, slept in an oxygen chamber, used ice, regular therapy and anything else team doctors prescribed, to try to get the ankle to heal.
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Three other Colts are questionable as of Wednesday: running back Donald Brown, foot; safety Melvin Bullitt, knee; and Jerraud Powers, foot.
Nine Saints are listed as questionable: corner back Randall Gay, foot; running back Lynell Hamilton, ankle; corner back Malcolm Jenkins, hamstring; wide receiver Courtney Roby, knee; safety Darren Sharper, knee; tight end Jeremy Shockey, knee; defensive end, groin; tackle Zach Strief, knee; linebacker Jonathan Vilma, knee.
Several winning trends should help decide your Super Bowl selection. Teams:
Scoring first are 28-12, 14-7 with a touchdown, 13-8 with a field goal and 1-1 with a safety.
Leading after the first quarter are 22-10 while 11 were tied. Ahead at halftime: 33-8, with two tied.
Leading after three quarters: 36-6, with only one tied.
Gaining a double-digit lead during the game are 38-1.
Scoring 32 or more points are 18-0, 20 or more points 38-11 and under 20 points 5-32.
A team that lost to the Buccaneers during the regular season and went to the Super Bowl that season has never won. It’s known as the Tampa Bay Curse.
The Colts didn’t play the NFC rival. But the Saints did – twice. In Week 11, New Orleans rolled at Tampa Bay, 38-7. But in Week 16, with the No. 1 seed guaranteed, the Saints lost in overtime at home, 20-17.
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